Trump Turns Global Trade Upside Down

2019-12-23

This has been a year of seemingly never-ending trade wars—between the United States and China, the United States and Europe, the United States and random other countries for random reasons, Japan and South Korea, and Britain and itself. It’s also been a culminating year for the Trump administration’s animus against the global trading system itself. Only a few small U.S. victories—an updated North American Free Trade Agreement, a limited deal with Japan, perhaps a mini deal with China—can be set against the accumulated turmoil, tensions, and tariffs. And the trade war has exacted a heavy cost on the global economy. Businesses, and not just in the United States, have slowed down investment, and the manufacturing sector is in recession. U.S. businesses and consumers have shelled out tens of billions of dollars to pay for U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs (and billions more to pay off farmers hurt by Chinese retaliation to those tariffs). The chairman of the Federal Reserve bemoans that he is trying to make policy in uncharted waters, while forecasters race each other to slash global growth estimates.

For the United States, all this trade upheaval appears to be not a passing storm that will disappear with Trump but perhaps the new normal. Most Democrats running against Trump are just as protectionist, just as suspicious of the siren song of free trade, and just as eager to decouple the Chinese and U.S. economies. After decades of hearing that globalization is good and free trade is better, many Americans, at least, seem to be having second thoughts.

But not all is doom and gloom. Even as the United States batters away at the global trade architecture it helped build, much of the rest of the world is doubling down on economic integration and free trade. The European Union is signing free trade deals around the world with giddy abandon. Asia-Pacific countries jilted by Trump went ahead and formed a slimmed-down Trans-Pacific Partnership anyway, and they are working on another big Asian trade pact that includes China.

Here are some of the most insightful Foreign Policy articles on the trade wars from the past year.

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